Alex's Autographs

What a year 2009 was. It was a year of ups and it was a year of downs. I had days where I beat records, and I had days (and days, and days) on end where I received nothing at all. To be laconic, 2009 was…interesting.

 

The year started off average. I sent out an average amount of requests and received an average number of successes. Then, during the summer, there was a success explosion. I received many autographs through the mail at a rate greater than ever. On June 8, I broke my previous record for most successes in a day (which was six), when I received nine. Things were going great.

 

But then, toward the end of the year, it tailed off. October brought me only nine successes. November was worse, with only three. And then came December, which was perhaps my worst month ever. I received only one success, Jacob Tamme.

 

Oh well, what’s in the past is in the past. Statistically, I did pretty well in ‘09. I mailed out 354 requests (320 for baseball, 33 for football and one for “other”), which was less than 2008 but still not too bad—it’s still an average of nearly 30 requests a month. I received a total of 186 successes, or about 16 a month, or one every two days. That’s not too shabby either. And, it gives me a pretty solid success rate of 52.5%--though that success rate is misleading, because not all of those successes were mailed in 2009. So, in reality, I really had a success rate of “only” 42%, if the requests I sent and received in 2009 are the only ones counted.

 

Of the 320 baseball requests I sent, I received 44% back. Football was the worst—I received only 27% of my football requests back. The “other” I sent to, which was a mascot (I know, I know) came back, so that success rate is 100%. And though I had a bunch of successes last year, I also had a bunch of failures too: 27. That seems to be about the average amount of failures I receive each year.

 

Not only did I set a record for most successes received in a day, I also set a record for longest wait time. On October 17, I received actor and comedian Wayne Brady’s autograph in the mail after a 1,520 day—or 4.2 year—wait. He wasn’t the only person to take a long time to get back to me, though.

 

In fact, baseball player John Smoltz took 1,573 days to get back to me, which is longer than Brady—but, I’m 99.9% sure it is autopenned, so I don’t count it as my record. My second longest baseball wait was retired minor leaguer Bobby Dejardin, at 540 days, and my third longest was Orlando Cabrera at 495 days. As well, Ubaldo Jimenez took 427 days, and retired minor leaguer Jeff Montani took 403 days. On the football side of the spectrum, Matt Hasselbeck was my longest wait, at 370 days. Eric Weddle took 276 days, and Calvin Williams took 191 days.

 

Some guys took a real long time, and others…well…didn’t. My shortest wait of 2009 was Brandon Waring, who took only six days to come back to me. My second shortest wait was seven days. Ted Rose, Bob Montgomery and John Eierman all took a week to return. A whole slew of people took eight days to come back: Ryan Carter, Dana Allison, Dominic Desantis, Kennard Bibbs, Jeff Winchester, Michael Wlodarczyk, Jon Tucker, and football player Frank Stams (who, coincidentally, was my shortest football wait). My other two shortest football waits were Greg Montgomery (10 days) and Jacob Tamme (19 days).

 

My very first success of 2009 was Travis Buck, who I received on the second of January. My last success was Jacob Tamme, who I received on the fifth of December (I went nearly a whole month with a success!).

 

In terms of in-person graphing, I did a little bit. I had the opportunity to go to six Rochester Red Wings games, at which I received a bunch of autographs A couple of my favorites include Danny Valencia, who is a top prospect in the Twins’ organization, and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor.

 

I reached a pretty big milestone in 2009, as I mailed out my 2,500^th (official—that is—recorded) request. I unofficially reached that mark before that date, because I didn’t start keeping track of my requests until 2003.

 

Now, onto notable stuff involving my website, my involvement on the Internets and so forth. On May 16, my site received its 100,000^th visitor, which is a pretty cool. I debuted Free-Autographs.net early in the year, which has become pretty popular. Well, that’s about it.

 

And finally, my best successes of 2009, by month:

 

January: Travis Buck

February: Brian Blades
March: Darryl Talley

April: Luke Hochevar

May: Jason Marquis

June: Billy Wagner

July: Joey Votto

August: Adam Wainwright

September: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

October: Matt Hasselbeck

November: Orlando Cabrera

December: Jacob Tamme

 

Here’s hoping 2010 is a successful year for not just me, but for all of you. In addition, thanks for continuing to visit my site, here’s hoping hit number 200,000 isn’t too far away!

 

 

New York Mets, 2009: How Unlucky Can One Team Get?

If you haven’t even been following baseball this year, you may still have heard about the incredible lack of luck the New York Mets have been experiencing this year. It is a lack of luck mostly brought on by injuries, although there have been some rather unlucky single plays that have contributed to the overall demise of the 2009 Mets as well. It is this that I ask you: How unlucky can one team get?

First, let’s start with the injuries. Most recently, it was reported that the staff ace—Johan Santana—is going to miss the rest of the season due to minor elbow surgery (which is actually a smart move; there is no point in rushing him back since this is a lost season anyway). David Wright, their star third baseman, was plunked in the head and was placed on the 15-day disabled list, although he will probably be back soon. Still, 15 days without your best player makes any stretch of games tough to play.

Then there is Carlos Delgado, who was the first big Mets star to lose time due to injury. He hurt his hip and strained his oblique, and he was placed on the 60-day DL. Whenever it looked like he may be making progress, something seemed to hold him up. The other Carlos—Carlos Beltran—was hitting .336 when he went down, a major loss to the team. Supposedly, he is due back in September…but the way luck has treated the Mets this year, he’ll probably trip and fall before his first game back and injure something else. Speedy Jose Reyes was another big star to go down. He hurt his hamstring and had knee inflammation, and he may miss the rest of the season.

In total, four of the Mets’ big offensive stars are currently on the disabled list. Even their replacements haven’t been spared the wrath of the (apparently) unhappy baseball gods, however. Alex Cora, who had been filling in for Jose Reyes at shortstop, injured ligaments in both of his thumbs and is likely out for the rest of the year. Highly-touted prospect Fernando Martinez, who hit .176 in 91 at-bats this year, tore his meniscus and was put on the DL. Ramon Martinez, who spent all of 12 games in the big leagues, dislocated his pinky and was placed on the 60-day DL. Gary Sheffield, who is leading the Mets in home runs with just ten, was on the DL earlier this season as well.

Oh, but there’s more. We haven’t talked about the pitchers yet: John Maine has been out for a long time, because he hurt his right shoulder. J.J. Putz was placed on the 60-day DL after breaking a bone spur in his elbow, and rotation replacements Jonathon Niese and Fernando Nieve are both out. Nieve may be back, but Niese is done for the year. Earlier in the year, Oliver Perez was on the disabled list also, although many Mets fans might agree that he wasn’t that great of a loss.

And the injuries keep coming. Jeff Francoeur, who the Mets acquired for Ryan Church, bruised his left thumb and may be placed on the disabled list too. Let’s tally them up, then: currently, the Mets have 12 players on the disabled list. Four are offensive stars:  David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes. Three of the players were replacements for the injured stars—those being Ramon Martinez, Fernando Martinez and Alex Cora. Two are starting pitchers that began the season with the team, one who is excellent (Johan Santana) and one who is solid (John Maine). Two more are starting pitchers who came in to fill in the gaps that were left by the injured players, both of which were showing promise: Fernando Nieve and Jonathon Niese. They lost one solid reliever (J.J. Putz; although he wasn’t that great this year), too. To top it off, Gary Sheffield and Oliver Perez spent time on the DL earlier, and Jeff Francoeur might be heading there soon. (EDIT: this just in -- Oliver Perez is out for the season as well.)

Right now, the Mets team is so rag-tag they should just move to Buffalo, where their Triple-A team the Bisons is located, and call themselves “Buffalo Bisons 2”. Just look at some of the names on the Mets’ current roster: Wilson Valdez, Pat Misch, Nelson Figueroa, Cory Sullivan. It’s kind of sad when your team is being anchored offensively by Luis Castillo, of all people.

Of course, it’s not just injuries that have contributed to the Mets bad season. Random plays have factored in as well—such as when Luis Castillo dropped the ball, literally, on a popup in a game in mid-June against the Yankees, causing a run to score and the Yankees to win. Just recently, Jeff Francoeur hit into an unassisted triple play to end a game, only the second time in big league history that that has happened.

And again I ask, how unlucky can one team get?

 

I can't believe it has been a whole year since I've written an article or rant. Well, here we go - 2008 in Review:

2008 was, well, kind of disappointing. In total, I mailed out 411 requests this year, which is the most I've mailed out since 2005. I received a total of 184 successes, which gives me a 44.8% success rate. Nothing too disappointing about that, it falls in line with my usual return percentage. However, of all the requests I sent in 2008 specifically, only 120 of them came back - which equals out to a 29% success rate for 2008-sent requests. That's not too impressive. Ah, but why am I complaining? I received a success about once every two days, which isn't too shabby, and I averaged about 15 successes a month, as opposed to 14 a month in 2007.

2008 was a year of extremes. I had some successes take an extremely long time to get back to me, and some take and extremely short amount of time to get back to me. First, I'll discuss the ones that took a long time to come back to me. My three longest waits of the year were all football players. Sam Adams, who took 1,476 days (about four years) to return my cards to me, set a new record for my longest wait ever. My longest wait ever record had previously been set earlier in the year, when Eugene Amano took 1,227 days to return my index card. Shawn Springs was the third longest wait of 2008, taking 1,031 days to get back to me (as a side note, nearly 1/2 of all my 2008 football successes took 200 days or more to get back to me). In 2008, my three longest baseball waits were Nick Johnson, who took 936 days, Derek Livernois (a retired minor leaguer of all people!) took 653 days and Joe Borchard took 528 days. Other guys who took over a year to return my cards to me include Renaldo Wynn (football, 844 days), CC Sabathia (baseball, 514 days) and Tom Gorzelanny (baseball, 469 days).

Now for the guys who took a really short amount of time to return my cards. You know how all my longest waits were football? Well, all my shortest waits were baseball. The least amount of time I had to wait for a success to return to me was five days, courtesy of a retired minor leaguer named David Jacas. Two guys took six days to come back to me - retired big leaguer Bob Coluccio and retired minor leaguer David Becker. Finally, a whole bunch of people took exactly one week (seven days) to return to me: retired minor leaguers Keith Stamler and JD Foust, minor leaguers Luis Durango, Chance Chapman, Allen Craig, Karl Bolt, Kyle Aselton, Aaron Hartsock, Rob Alcombrack, Chris Valaika and John Otness and former big leaguer Keith Hughes. My three shortest football waits were Jeff Webb (13 days), Michael Griffin (20 days) and Zach Miller (23 days).

My very first successes of 2008 were Ryan Hawblitzel, JJ Furmaniak and Jeff Small, all of which I received in January 3. My final success of 2008 was Harold Allen, which I received on December 26.

I also did some in-person graphin' in 2008, with my favorite successes being Ron Guidry and Bill "Spaceman" Lee.

I accomplished one big milestone in 2008, that is I mailed out my 2000th success on July 21st.

In November, 2008 I began developing a new site that should be debuting pretty soon.

Let me wrap this up by showing my 12 best successes of 2008, by month:

January, 2008: CC Sabathia
February, 2008: Roosevelt Brown
March, 2008: John Maine
April, 2008: Jay Bruce
May, 2008: Pat Hentgen
June, 2008: Jesse Crain
July, 2008: Garrett Anderson
August, 2008: Curtis Granderson
September, 2008: Jeff Clement
October, 2008: Bert Blyleven
November, 2008: Michael Griffin
December, 2008: Josh Hamilton

Well, that was 2008. Here's to a successful 2009!

What a year 2007 was! Last year, I mailed out 335 requests and had 164 successes, which gives me a 49% success rate for the year. Although I mailed out 18 less requests than in 2006, I received exactly 18 more successes than 2006 as well - so I guess not mailing out as many didn't hurt me that much. I averaged one success every 2.2 days, or about 14 successes a month. That's not too shabby in my opinion! However, statistics do tend to lie a bit. Although I averaged one success every 2.2 days, that doesn't really mean I received one success every 2.2 days - in fact, there were times when I went at least a week without a success. Hopefully I can improve upon that in 2008!

I had many successes take a long time to return to me in 2007, a few of which took over one year. My three longest waits of 2007 were Ricky Stone, who took 815 days; Pat Hentgen, who took 775 days; and Phil Norton, who took 622 days. On the football front, I didn't receive too many successes. My three longest football waits were Mike Nugent, who took 289 days; Warrick Dunn, who took 275 days; and Oshiomoghu Atogwe, who took 212 days. I had only one celebrity success in 2007, and it took over one year to come back to me: Wes Craven signed in 752 days. Overall, I had eight successes that took over one year come back to me.

Although a few successes took over one year to come back to me, I also had a number of successes take a very short amount of time to return to me as well. My shortest baseball wait was five days, which is credited to Sal Agostinelli. Six days was the second shortest wait, and three players took that long: Bill Norris, Dave Swartzbaugh and Larry Barnes. The third shortest baseball wait was seven days, accomplished by four players: Jeff Neely, Joe Kraemer, Tom Nuneviller and Jacobo Meque.

My three shortest football waits weren't really all that short. The quickest was 30 days, by Bryan Chiu. Uzooma Okeke was next fastest at 33 days, and Anthony Calvillo was third fastest at 37 days. It's interesting to note that all three of those guys are CFL football player, not NFL.

On January 3rd, I received my very first success of the year - the aforementioned Jeff Neely. My final success came on December 26, when a Gerald Williams autograph arrived in my mailbox.

Throughout the year, I and my website achieved a few milestones. On May 15, I mailed my 1500th autograph request, and on January 27, I passed the 50,000 hit mark on my site. On December 21, I passed the 75,000 hit mark.

Although I mostly did TTM autographing, I did a little in person autographing in 2007 as well. My favorite IP success was Hall of Famer Paul Molitor.

To wrap this up, here are the 12 best successes of 2007:

January: Khalil Greene
February: Steve Reed
March: Kevin Youkilis
April: Cliff Lee
May: Bo Hart
June: Mark Buehrle
July: Terry Francona
August: Pat Neshek
September: Orlando Cabrera
October: James Loney
November: Cole Hamels
December: Jim Thome

2007 was a great year. Here's hoping 2008 is even better!

 

These are all the first timers on the 2008 ballot. For each one, I have written why or why not they should be in the Hall of Fame.

Tim Raines. The best and most likely of all the first timers to be inducted. His 2605 hits and .294 were great and good respectively, but it is his 808 stolen bases that should get him in. He is fifth all-time on the steals list, and beside Vince Coleman would be the only man eligible for the Hall of Fame with 750 or more steals that is not in the Hall of Fame. He was a seven time All-Star, was constantly on the OBP, hits, triples, BB, stolen bases (among other things) leaderboards. Of the top ten players that are most similar to him statistically, five are in the Hall of Fame: Lou Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke, Harry Hooper and Enos Slaughter. His grey ink and black ink are under that of the average Hall of Famer, and the Hall of Fame monitor doesn't even call him a "likely" Hall of Famer. But, I think he belongs in the Hall of Fame, and should get in eventually.

David Justice. Hit 305 home runs, which is good, but not Hall of Fame worthy. His chances are made even less likely when you consider that he hit only .279, played only 14 seasons and was a dud in the postseason. Only one Hall of Famer is statistically similar to him - Larry Doby - but the most similar player is Tim Salmon, who, like Justice, probably won't ever get in. His grey ink is less that three times that of the average Hall of Famer, and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as a very unlikely Hall of Famer. He doesn't belong.

Brady Anderson. If you're going to have a .256 career batting average, you also have to be spectacular defensively, a la Bill Mazeroski. By his lack of Gold Gloves (he won a whopping zero) he clearly wasn't that great in the field. 1661 hits, 210 home runs and 315 stolen bases are not enough to get a guy into the Hall. His grey ink is nearly four times less than that of the average Hall of Famer and the Hall of Fame monitor has him even less likely a Hall of Famer than David Justice. He is not statistically similar to any Hall of Famers. He doesn't ever belong.

Rod Beck. He was a great reliever during his prime, but if you're going to be a closer in today's era and expect to get into the Hall, you either have to have a gargantuan amount of saves and/or a really low ERA. Beck had neither. To add insult to injury, he played only 13 seasons, which is really low for a Hall of Famer. Not one of the players he is most similar to are in the Hall of Fame and his black and grey ink are terrible. His black is one (the average Hall of Famer's is 40) and his grey ink is 23 (the average Hall of Famer's is 185). Hall of Fame monitor however says that he is more deserving than David Justice or Brady Anderson to get in, however I don't ever see it happening. If the Hall of Fame ever gets watered down that much, then it would become more or less the Hall of Shame. He doesn't ever belong.

Shawon Dunston. He averaged less than 100 hits a season, collecting only 1597 in an 18 year career. He didn't do any one thing super well: 150 homers, 212 steals and his strikeout to walk ratio was nearly five to one. He was a notoriously bad walker in his career: I remember when he played with the New York Mets, he didn't walk once in 42 games. Over the final six seasons in his career, he didn't walk more than 10 times in a season once, although each year he struck out at least 25 times. He was a good player at most in his prime, but not a Hall of Famer by any meaning of the phrase. There are no Hall of Famers statistically similar to him, his grey ink is 138 less than the average Hall of Famer's and the Hall of Fame monitor has him basically as a zero percent chance kind of guy. He doesn't belong, ever.

Chuck Finley. He was certainly a great pitcher in his best years, but no where near a Hall of Famer. He posted a .536 winning percentage (hey, it's better than Nolan Ryan) but Finley only won 200 games. He was a great strikeout pitcher and had he started his career just two years earlier and lasted another year or so, he would be looking at 3,000 career strikeouts and a much improved chance at the Hall. But, he only has 2610 strikeouts, and add that to a 3.85 career ERA, his chances are really slim. No Hall of Famers are statistically similar to him and he only has a black ink score of 6. His grey ink is actually pretty good being that it's 156 and the average Hall of Famer's is 185, but the Hall of Fame monitor has him as an unlikely Hall of Famer. I agree with that, I don't think he belongs.

Travis Fryman. He hit .274 with 1776 hits and 223 home runs in 13 seasons. Really, that's all I need to say. But, I'll say more: his strikeout to walk ratio was 2:1, he was a postseason dud and his career was too short. He was an All-Star quite a few times, but that doesn't merit his election into the Hall. Not one Hall of Famer is statistically similar to him, his black ink is two, his grey ink is 20 and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as very, very unlikely. He doesn't belong, ever.

Chuck Knoblauch. He was a great basestealer in his day and is well remembered for his funky batting stance. His .289 average and 1839 hits in 12 seasons are respectable, but he is still far from being a Hall of Famer (although Lou Boudreau is statistically similar to him). His black ink is 3, grey ink is 67 and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as unlikely. He might not be the worst choice ever (there are a couple worse players in the Hall than he) but I don't believe he ever deserves induction into the Hall of Fame.

Robb Nen. He was a top closer during his career and it stinks that he was forced to retire so young. I guarantee you he'd be in the Hall of Fame had he played five more years. That said, his 2.98 ERA and 314 saves are great, but he didn't play long enough in my opinion. His black and grey ink were both terrible, however the Hall of Fame monitor has him as an even more likely Hall of Famer than Raines. The tenth most similar player to him statistically, Bruce Sutter, is in the Hall as well. Robb Nen was at the top of his class for a while, and probably will get at least a couple votes. I always thought he was a great player and wouldn't hate seeing him in the Hall, however I think there are others that should get in before him. If he belongs in, it's not for a very long time.

Jose Rijo. He actually had a respectable career ERA with his 3.24 mark, but his record was only 116-91 and he averaged less than 10 wins a season. No Hall of Famers are statistically similar, his black and grey ink are bad, and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as being very unlikely. He never belongs.

Todd Stottlemyre. Posting a 4.28 career ERA is no way to get you into the Hall. Neither is winning only 138 games in 14 seasons and having a .533 winning percentage. No Hall of Famers are statistically similar to him (which is a good thing) and his grey ink is terrible. The Hall of Fame monitor has him one point more likely that Shawon Dunston, which means he'll never get in, and rightly so.

 

These are all non-first timers on the 2008 ballot. For each one, I have written why or why not they should be in the Hall of Fame.

Rich Gossage. On the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores, the two players he is most similar to statistically are Hall of Famers - Rollie Finger and Hoyt Wilhelm. One of the best closers of his era. The Hall of Fame monitor says he has a score of 126, while the likely Hall of Famer's is 100. He belongs, 100%.

Tommy John. Has the second most wins of any pitcher not in the Hall, but his case is not as strong as Blyleven's because he didn't have an incredibly high strikeout total to offset his less than stellar winning percentage. He was a postseason pitching star, finishing with a postseason record of 12-5. He was only an All-Star four times and never won a Cy Young award. Then again, neither did Blyleven, and Blyleven was an All-Star only twice (but Bly did strikeout 3700+ batters). John had horrible black ink, respectable grey ink (but not equal to or above the average Hall of Famer's) and the Hall of Fame monitor gives him a score of 111. Six of the 10 players most similar to him statistically are in the Hall (however, some - like Eppa Rixey - are considered "mistakes"). I don't support him as strongly, he should get in after Dawson, Gossage and Blyleven.

Don Mattingly. Had he played ball in the 1920s and 1930s, he would have been elected to the Hall of Fame under Frankie Frisch's reign as chairman of the Veteran's Committee in the 1960s and 1970s. They liked good average hitters with fair power who had relatively short careers (ahem Chick Hafey). I think the knock against Mattingly is his career was shortened by back problems. If it were maybe just three years longer, his chances would be greater. The numbers say that he wouldn't be the worst choice for the Hall of Fame however. His black ink and grey ink are just a tad under the average Hall of Famer's, and the Hall of Fame monitor has him at 133.5 points - a likely Hall of Famer has about 100 points. Two of the ten most similar players to him statistically are in the Hall - Kirby Puckett and Jim Bottomley. I wouldn't hate it if he got in. I'd say he belongs, but some guys should be let in before him first.

Mark McGwire. Last year I didn't even put him on my top 10 list, but I've had a change of heart. Basically he was just a Dave Kingman with more power and a better eye at the plate (who could hit for higher average), but he was a good player. Only two of the 10 most similar players to him are in the Hall, but his black ink is higher than the average Hall of Famer's and his grey ink isn't much lower. The Hall of Fame monitor says he should be in. The dark cloud of steroids looms however, so I don't think he'll get in. He should get in eventually, I think he belongs, but he should have to wait a few years.

Jack Morris. To start, his ERA was too high - 3.90. His 250+ wins are a plus as are the number of times he finished in the top 10 for Cy Young voting (although he never won). Six Hall of Famers are similar to him statistically, his black ink is higher than the average Hall of Famer's and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as a "likely" Hall of Famer. He certainly was a great pitcher, not great enough for the Hall though. I don't think he belongs.

Dale Murphy. Was an All-Star a lot and a Gold Glover a lot. His black ink, grey ink and Hall of Fame monitor scores are all higher than an average and likely Hall of Famer. His offensive statistics don't really seem all that great (they're Joe Carter-esque) and only two of the 10 most similar batters to him are in the Hall. He played in a lot of hitter friendly parks in his career. I'm not saying he doesn't belong in the Hall, but he's not the greatest choice in the world.

Dave Parker. He reminds me of Al Oliver, who I wouldn't mind seeing in the Hall. I wouldn't mind seeing Parker in the Hall either. Him, Harold Baines and Andre Dawson are the only players with 2700+ hits and 300+ home runs who are not in the Hall of Fame. Two of the 10 most similar players to him statistically are in the Hall. His black ink score (26) is only one point lower than that of the average Hall of Famer's. His grey ink score is higher and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as a likely Hall of Famer. Parker belongs in the Hall of Fame one day.

Harold Baines. If you're a DH for most of your career, the only way that you should be able to get into the Hall is if you hit 500 home runs or get 3000 hits. Baines did neither. He finished with only 2866 hits and 384 homers. His black ink is terrible as is his grey ink. He doesn't belong.

Bert Blyleven. Had a better career winning percentage than Nolan Ryan. Only player with 3,000 plus strikeouts not in the Hall or headed to it. Had 287 wins. Besides Bobby Mathews and Tommy John, that is the highest win total of any pitcher not in the Hall. Now don't give me this mumbo jumbo that he did all this just because he played a long time. Mike Morgan played a long time and finished with a 141-186 record. And if you think he only got those numbers because he played a long time, then same goes for Ryan. Anywho, grey ink has him at 237 points, which is over 50 points higher than the average Hall of Famer. Hall of Fame monitor has him at 120.5 points, which is 20.5 points higher that the likely Hall of Famer. Eight of the 10 players most statistically similar to him are in the Hall. HE BELONGS, 100%.

Dave Concepcion. The Big Red Machine wouldn't have been the same without him. He was a constant All-Star and a multi-time Gold Glove winner. He hit only .267 with 101 home runs and 950 RBI however, and that's not too impressive. Bobby Wallace - a Hall of Famer - is the player most similar to him, and he has three other HOFers that are statistically similar as well. Grey ink - bleh, but Hall of Fame monitor has him as a likely Hall of Famer. I don't think he belongs, but he'll probably get in one day.

Andre Dawson. A member of the 400 home run, 300 stolen base club - one of only three ballplayers in that club. According to the Similarity Scores, five of the 10 most statistically similar players to him are in the Hall, with the top two being in the Hall. He has the grey ink of a Hall of Famer and then some. The average Hall of Famer's grey ink is 144, his is 164. The Hall of Fame monitor says his score is 118, while the likely Hall of Famer's is 100. He definitely belongs, 100%.

Jim Rice. Was a great player during his career. He hit .298 with 382 homers and 2542 hits. He was a constant All-Star and even won an MVP award. His black ink is 6 points higher than the average Hall of Famer's, while his grey ink is 32 points higher. He's a likely Hall of Famer and then some. Four of the players most similar to him are in the Hall. He didn't have one statistic that just stands out at you (500 homers, 3000 hits, 600 steals) but I do think he belongs.

Lee Smith. The man held the record for most career saves for goodness sakes! 478 is a lot in a career, even for today. Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter both compare to him, although Jeff Reardon is the most similar. Reardon was great too, but not a Hall of Famer. However, Reardon saved over 100 games less than Smith and had an ERA .13 points higher. Hall of Fame monitor says Smith is a likely Hall of Famer. He belongs.

Alan Trammell. 2365 hits, .285 average - not really Hall of Fame material, in my opinion. Only one Hall of Famer is statistically similar to him. He was an All-Star a bunch a times and a Gold Glover a few, and he did play shortstop, a historically less offensively oriented position (although that is changing nowadays). Although Hall of Fame monitor has him as a likely HOFer, I've never advocated his induction - he doesn't belong.

 

Another year of collecting is over. This past year, I sent out 353 requests-considerably less than what I sent out in 2005. Even though I sent out less requests in 2006, I still received 146 successes, which is one every 2.5 days. That's okay, but I would liked to have done better.

In 2006, I got into the hobby of collecting retired minor leaguers through the mail. It's very fun, because not only do you get a lot of successes, you also sometimes receive extra autographs and kind notes from the former players saying "thanks". I got so involved in doing that that I even decided to create a website, Minor League Addresses Plus, which shares addresses by which to contact retired minor leaguers.

I had many successes in 2006 that took over one year to get returned to me. In baseball, my three longest waits were Mike Woodard who took 741 days, Rick Huisman who took 625 days and Kyle Snyder who took 557 days. Quite honestly, I never would have expected any of them to take that long. In football, Cornelius Griffin was my longest wait at 648 days, followed by two from Kyle Brady-one took 600 days and the other took 530 days. But my longest wait was a celebrity-Herb Alpert of Tijuana Brass fame took 1,023 days to come back to me. Overall, I had 13 of my successes take over 365 days to come back.

Not only did I have some successes that took a really long time, but I also had some that took a really short amount of time as well. The shortest time was 7 days, which five baseball players managed to accomplish: Greg Everson, Philip Hughes, Scott Wade, Brad Pounders and Darren Hodges all took only one week to return my cards to me (note how four of those five players mentioned are retired minor leaguers). The second shortest wait for baseball was 8 days. Ken Ryan, Eric Cammack, Tate Seefried, Brett Caradonna, John Nicholson, Aldo Pecorilli and Danny Buxbaum all took only 8 days to come back to me. 5 out of those 7 were retired minor leaguers. The third shortest time it took for a baseball success to come back to me was 10 days, which occurred three times. Rick Trlicek, Tom Nevers and David Zancanaro all took only 10 days to be returned to me. With 2 of those 3 being retired minor leaguers, that means that 11 of the 15 successes that took the shortest amount of time to come back were retired minor leaguers.

My three shortest times in football were 10 days, 18 days and 19 days. Ellis Hobbs took only 10 days, while Jon Goldsberry took 18 and Nick Collins-my last success of 2006-took 19. For anyone who wants to know, my first success of 2006 was Chris Snelling.

In person this year was fun. Not only did I witness my first ever no-hitter, I also had some pretty awesome successes--my favorites being Goose Gossage, Gavin Floyd, Jeremy Cummings and the always-reliable Pat Neshek.

As for my website, it didn't really see many changes over the past year, although it did pass the 45,000 visitor mark, which is pretty awesome.

And, to wrap this up, my best successes of 2006:

January: Mike Sweeney
February: Bobby Crosby
March: Daryle Ward
April: Morgan Ensberg
May: Joe Mauer
June: Zach Greinke
July: Kevin Millwood
August: Freddy Sanchez
September: Austin Kearns
October: Jonathan Vilma
November: C.C. Sabathia
December: Jake Peavy
Posted sometime at the beginning of 2007.

WIN, THEY DID NOT

Well, I hate to admit it-and this is why it has taken me so long to write about it-but the New York Mets did not make it. They did not make it to the World Series-all because of one bad pitch by Aaron Heilman to Yadier Molina. Darn.

Oh well. 'Til next year perhaps-and hopefully next year they can go all the way, hopefully they can win the Series. It looks like they might just have what it takes, too.

They have a great mix of everything-power, speed, good pitching, youth, experience. Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Carlos Beltran should lead the power brigade next season-their 105 combined home runs in 2006 were over 50% of the team's total. Adding to the equation Jose Reyes, who hit 19 home runs last year-well, watch out National League, here we come.

Reyes and Endy Chavez should be all the speed they need-with Wright and Beltran adding some to the fold as well. Reyes is obviously the best base stealer on the team, swiping 64 bases in '06 (all the while hitting 17 triples, let us not forget that).

They have some good pitching-don't let the critics tell you otherwise. Their bullpen was one of the best in the league, with only one of the five main relievers having an ERA over 3.00 (Heilman at a respectable 3.62). They got some old guys in that starting rotation, but hopefully some of the younger guys-Bannister, Soler, Pelfrey-can pick up after them if they do bad.

The good mix of age and youth is another plus for this team-they have some young guys who I hope will make an impact next year-I'd like to see Anderson Hernandez and Lastings Milledge live up to their high expectations with Pelfrey and Philip Humber hopefully making an impact as well.

The one thing that kind of frightens me is their bench-besides Chavez and Julio Franco, they didn't have much else to work with in 2006. Chris Woodward hit only .216. Michael Tucker, Eli Marrero, Ricky Ledee, Mike DiFelice, Kelly Stinnett, Victor Diaz-they all hit under .200, with a few of them hitting  under .100. Hopefully a few well-crafted off season trades and pick ups can help bolster the bench.

And with that, all I can say is..."Let's Go Mets!"
Posted sometime after the Mets lost to the Cardinals in the 2006 NLCS (thanks a lot Aaron Heilman)

Baseball's Unappreciated Statistics
Wait...That Chris Capuano won 18 games?

As a matter of fact, Chris Capuano did win 18 games last season. Do you know why you didn't hear anything about it? Because Capuano played for a team that went 81-81 in 2005. Oh yeah, he also had a .600 winning percentage, which was the highest out of all the starters on the team (except Rick Helling. He went 3-1 on the season. He only started 7 games, though. Darn you Rick Helling). Capuano also tied for the league lead in games started. And with all this being done on a team as mediocre as the Brewers, did he get any Cy Young Award consideration? No. He didn't even get a single vote. Not one. Nada. Zilcho mundo. And his 18 wins aren't the only unappreciated statistics from the 2005 baseball season either. There are more. Like...

Brian Giles. The guy had a .301 batting average and a .906 OPS in 2005 and only finishes ninth in MVP voting. That's higher than Miguel Tejada's OPS in 2002 and Tejada actually won the MVP Award that year. Still, his batting average and OPS really aren't what I find unappreciated about Giles' statistics. What I find unappreciated about Giles statistics are his walks totals, and more specifically, his BB:K ratio. In 2005, Giles walked 119 times and led the National League in that category. But do I hear anybody talking about that? No. I hear people talking about Barry Bonds' steroid scandal, and a Sammy Sosa corked bat. Stop talking about Bonds and Sosa and start talking about Giles' amazing walk total, people! Stop unappreciating the real statistics. And I don't hear anyone talking about Giles' BB:K ratio. His ratio in 2005-1.86:1-is an amazing number. He even outdid himself, by beating his career ratio of 1.43:1. That might not seem very impressive, but just look at Jose Hernandez. He had a BB:K ratio of .23:1 in 2005. For every walk, he would have struckout 5 times. Not good. Not Giles good. But people would rather be talking about how bad Hernandez did when it came to the strikeouts rather than how good Giles' did when it came to his walking. And that's not good. Appreciate people. Because one day, Giles may never post statistics as good as that again. Ever.

Oh yeah, Chris Ray too. This kid appeared in 41 games as a  rookie last year for the Orioles, posted a 2.66 ERA and struckout 43 in just over 40 innings of work. But, he was playing for the Orioles, a team with a 74-88 record. So, his work went unappreciated.  While everyone was talking about that Conor Jackson guy and that Ryan Zimmerman guy-who aren't even in the same league as Ray-Chris wasn't getting much attention. I mean, how can a guy who hits only .200 in 85 at-bats (I'm talking about Jackson here) get more attention that a guy who has and ERA as small and nice as 2.66? And Ryan Zimmerman only hit .397 in 58 at-bats. Come on, if you can't even break .400, get off the field. Get off the field and let Chris Ray on it. Just watch, Chris Ray will go on to pitch in 1500 games and post an ERA of 2.50 with 1700 strikeouts in his career. And Zimmerman will break his leg and never play again, and Jackson will spend his entire career as a utility player. And you'll be at home watching ESPN, seeing Ray getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. And then you'll be thinking "aw gee, I guess I should have appreciated his rookie season more." And I'll be at home watching ESPN, seeing Ray getting inducted in the Hall of Fame, laughing at all you unappreciaters. I can feel the giggles starting already.

And finally, Rick Short. "Rick who?", You ask? Yeah, Rick Short. While that Livan Hernandez pitcher guy and that Jose Guillen batter guy were making the headlines, Short-a 32 year old rookie in 2005 with the Nationals-was doing his thing. Living the dream. Yeah. If you've even heard of him before, did you know that he hit .400 in 15 at-bats for the Nats this past year? No? Okay then...did you know that two out of his six hits were home runs, and four out of his six hits were for extra-bases? No? I would called those statistics pretty unappreciated then. Especially coming from a guy who spent 12 seasons in the minors. I mean, what's his name Petagine of the Red Sox wasn't even in American baseball for six years and he got more attention than Short did. Were 67% of Petagine's hits for extra bases? No. As a matter of fact, Petagine only hit one home run in nine hits. Okay, okay. I can tell you don't know much about this Rick Short character. But you must know that Short never struck out more than 60 times in a season in the minors. Still no? Alright. Then you probably didn't know this: Short posted a .383 average in 108 minor league games in 2005 (and a .356 average in 2002). Just like I guessed. You didn't know that. While Rick Short was producing, no one was appreciating. Boo is what I say to that. Boo is what I say to all the unappreciation. Just watch. While Chris Ray wins the Cy Young Award this upcoming season, Rick Short will become the first ever 33 year old Rookie of the Year. I'll bet a box full of air on that.

And that's it. Capuano, Giles, Ray and Short all posted exemplary statistics in 2005, and they all went far too unappreciated. Now please. Go. Appreciate. These statistics do not just have to be small marks in a book, they can make headlines too!

Yay statistics!
Posted sometime after the 2005 season.

At the beginning of the year, I set three goals for 2005: to get the ever-elusive Phil Niekro to autograph a card, to send out at least 300 requests, and to achieve a success rate of 40% or more. I'll have to live with 2 out of 3 (which is an amazing batting average, so who am I to complain?). It took me three tries to get Phil Niekro, but I finally did get him on February 2nd. I achieved my second goal with flying colors, by actually sending out around 550 requests, which is 250 more that what I set out to attain. Alas, I did not quite reach my final goal. The goal was to attain a 40% overall success rate, but mine was a mere 34%. At least it's an improvement-at one point, my success rate was only 21%!

In April, I decided to try to obtain an autograph from every current and former living major leaguer born on my birthday. There were 18 people who fit that criteria, and by the end of the year, I was only 5 away from completing the goal.

My website saw major improvements, as I added multiple pages and overall improved the look and feel of it. In March, I bought a premium service, which allowed unlimited pages and images. That gave me much for freedom with the website. In September, I bought the domain name, alexsautographs.com, which I think is a huge improvement over the old freewebs.com/baseballautographs address. I was hoping for 20,000 visitors by the sites' two year anniversary in April, 2006. Already I have over 25,000!

I received many good autographs this year. Niekro, Carl Erskine, Barry Zito, Hank Blalock, and J.D. Drew are some of my favorites. Getting Harold Baines was a definite surprise, as was Terry Glenn. Overall, I was pleased with my autograph successes this year.
Posted sometime at the beginning of 2006.

 

Astros vs. White Sox
And the winner is...

The Astros vs. the White Sox, wait-it's not interleague play, is it? Then why would they be facing each other at this time of year? The World Series? Where are the Yankees, the Braves? The answers-no, it's the World Series, yes, and out of the playoffs.

The Astros and White Sox are two teams that no one would think to be playing in the Series, but they are. Here is why the White Sox will win it all:

• The Chicago White Sox hit 39 more home runs in 2005 than did the Astros.
• Not only can Chicago hit more home runs, they can play more small ball-they stole 22 more bases, and hit more sacrifice flies. One thing against them though is their sacrifice hit total is far surpassed by that of the Astros, 82 to 53.
• Even though the Astros have great relievers in Wheeler and Lidge, the Sox have names who have proven themselves to be even more invaluable-Dustin Hermanson, Neal Cotts, and Cliff Politte each appeared in over 65 games, and had ERA's under 2.05.
• The 5 main starters for the Astros-Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Brandon Backe and Ezequiel Astacio combined won a total of 73 games and had a winning percentage of .579. The 5 main starters for the Sox-Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, and Orlando Hernandez combined won less games in 72, but had a winning percentage of .632.
• The White Sox have Paul Konerko.

What more could you ask for?
Posted sometime during the 2005 World Series.

Kaz Matsui

Was he a waste, or is it just me?

 

 

 

Mets fans, you may like this article. Any others…well…you may not really care.

 

Now, as many of you know (or not), I’m a big Mets fan. They are the team I follow the most. I watch their games. I read up on their statistics. And when I see a Met not living up to his expectations, it hurts. It really does.

 

And, Kaz Matsui is really not living up to his expectations. He was supposed to be an Ichiro-esque player, and he has-it’s a struggle for me to say this-not. Now, I know it takes some people a few years to become acclimated to the Major League Baseball style, but you don’t have those few years when you’re a 27-year-old rookie! You should be in, or at least entering, your prime by now. And now, Kaz is hitting .230 on the season.

 

And it’s not just the fact that his average is low, either. Matsui has not shown the power or speed abilities that he showed over in Japan. What happened to 36 home run Kaz Matsui? Where did 62 stolen base Kaz go? My bet is they went with his health, which has not been very good, these past two years.

 

I know he’s been hurt, but that really can’t be an excuse, because when he’s healthy, he not showing anything either.

 

I've ranted long enough. Kaz just isn't what he was supposed to be. But, that's okay I guess.

 

Jeff Keppinger will be ready to take his spot any year now.
Posted sometime when Kaz Matsui became a miserable failure for the Mets.

 

Terrell Owens

Just Shut-Up and Play!

 

 

 

            Words of advice to you Terrell Owens-sign the contract and play. Not only will you only lose a huge fan base (that is-if you haven’t already), you will also lose a great deal of respect from players around the league if you don’t. Now, I’m not an expert, but my theory is people are really getting tired of your ‘dispute’, if that’s what you call it. I mean, why should you be disputing about $3.25 million? You’d be earning about 75 times the median income of households throughout the United States!

 

Hey, I’ll take that money, if you really don’t want it. Heck, since it’s so bad, I’ll just suit up in your place, and play in the place of you. I’ll do it for that money. I’ll do it for half that. No, TO, I’ll  do it for 1/20^th of that. Because that’s still a lot of money. That’s still $162,500.

 

Okay, so you don’t want me to play in your place. That’s understandable. But instead of continuing this media circus, stop it. Please. We know you’re a great wide receiver, but you don’t want to fall into the ranks of the all-time football jerks. We know you’re a great wide receiver…we know, we really do. You don’t need to tell us on ESPN everyday.

 

I mean, it’s really sad when there are money disputes over a game. A game! Terrell, you don’t know how lucky you are to be where you are. You have the opportunity to earn over three million dollars, for a game, and you’re turning it away for ‘more’. Please. Like I said…I’ll play in your place.

 

So, Terrell, just remember. If you don’t play, you’ll lose a large portion of your fan base, respect from players around the league, and have the media constantly buzzing about you (you do dislike that, don’t you?). Shut up and play. Sign the contract. Play this year.

 

And, don’t worry-by next year, we will be ready for a whole new contract dispute.
Posted when Terrell Owens was being a baby about his contract.